Me and My 8,999 Friends

July 9, 2008

We don’t believe your Market Research methods. There is no way the Nationals are drawing less television viewing fans than butts in seats. I mean, sure it makes for sensationalist news, “Hey! Look! They suck on the field AND on tv!” but it just can’t be right. I know I watch or record every single game. Pretty much everyone I know watches every game they don’t attend. Granted, I don’t really have 8,999 friends, but if we’re a small sample and the percentage is that high, then the demographic maybe missed the mark in this area.

I guess I let my Sports Business Journal trial subscription end too soon or I would have seen the television ratings earlier as well. I didn’t even notice when the daily emails stopped arriving in my inbox or the giant-sized magazine in my mailbox. I linked to the Sports Bog the day Dan Steinberg broke this on his blog. The next day a full article by Steinberg appeared in the paper and this morning Tom Boswell took pen to the subject.

So how does Nielson get its data? Way back in the day, they installed little doohickeys on their test subjects’ televisions to monitor when it was on and what channel. Now with DVRs and digital cable, I wonder if a) the monitored households per capita has increased, and b) the data is more accurate.

I have a few theories:

1. This is my main theory. The Orioles reportedly drew an average of 33,000 TV households to the Nats’ 9,000. What if the more accurate reporting was that MASN drew an average of 33,000 TV households to 9,000 on MASN2. I mean, does Nielson even pay attention to which station the Nationals games are on for a particular date? Maybe 1/3 of the fans can’t bother to go hunting for the MASN2 channel. Us fans know the games are divided evenly between the two teams and the two channels. So that would mean the Nats and O’s are drawing the same number of households when the games are on MASN, which sounds far more plausible.

2. Does the entire game have to be watched to count as a hit? With the early blowouts and people giving up and turning the Nats game off, do those still count?

3. Bad demographic sample. Maybe they randomly picked people in the DC area who just aren’t baseball fans and somehow missed a more diverse demographic? That’s why I wondered if all cable sets are now counted or not.

4. Maybe with multiple televisions, people aren’t watching on the one Nielson is monitoring :-)

Ok, I guess I’ll stick with theory 1. Or I could be completely wrong, but c’mon - there are at least half that many Nats bloggers watching the games!

Posted in MLB, Media, Washington Nationals