Ticket Hype vs. Winning Games

November 1, 2008

GM Meetings this week
By AllStarsPlus

Many Nats message boards have talked about the size (or lack thereof) of the payroll. Season ticket levels of retention are very co-dependent on many factors including new acquisitions so this great line from the movie Jerry Maguire with a tagline is so on point, “Show me the money”….being spent! If the Tampa Bay Rays and the Phillies who faced off in this years World Series are the barometer for payroll, then using the average payroll between those 2 teams would be slightly above $70,000,000 or approximately $15 million above current 2008 Nats spending.

Let’s digress to February 2, 2005, Sammy Sosa became a Baltimore Oriole. Season ticket renewals had slumped with many border allegiances shifting from Baltimore to the new Washington Nationals. After the Sosa announcement, the Baltimore Orioles sales department got to work using the Sosa signing as their catalyst with the sole purpose of getting those “on the fence” potentials pulling out their credit cards to buy tickets. I received one of those calls in 2005.

Perception is not always reality and with new signings you have to see beyond the hype. There is no crystal ball approach even with sure things. So we know the end result with Sosa in Baltimore which lasted one year and didn’t end well as you can analyze Sammy’s own quote at his contract signing press conference in 2005.

Gary Washburn at the time wrote, “I am happy,” Sosa said. “The best of Sammy Sosa is coming now. I have to say that I am hoping to end my career here. I am ready to help the Baltimore Orioles.” The trade, one of the most significant transactions in club history, boosts the spirits of an organization after a difficult offseason. Sosa’s presence gives the Orioles one of the most imposing lineups in baseball as he joins All-Star Miguel Tejada, fellow 500-home-run man Rafael Palmeiro and standout catcher Javy Lopez.

We all can recall how Palmeiro retired from baseball before the 2005 season ended after playing 110 games that year for the Orioles…Sosa played only 102 games with a powerless 14 HRs, and the Orioles slithered into a 74-88, 4th place finish in the AL Eastern Division with a strong 2.6 million in attendance based on the hype. In 2006, their attendance dropped almost 500,000 tickets from 2005 so hype does work (temporarily), but baseball fans outside of NY and Wrigley generally can’t be duped year over year and show-up because it is the “hot” ticket during the Spring and Summer.

So now to the Nationals. The Lerners, Stan Kasten, Jim Bowden and Mike Rizzo are already busy to get our Nationals the one big name that get those “on the fence” potentials pulling out their credit cards to buy tickets. The Nats ended up with under 2.4 million attendance (80 games) in 2008 so not only do they need 1 key player for hype, but they need that key player to win more games for the long-term. Sure, signing Ken Griffey Jr. to a 1 year deal may sell a few more right field seats, but that is Sosa hype and won’t win bunches of games.

Throwing some names in the hat of big hitting lefties that (possibly) could be available are Adam Dunn, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder and Jack Cust. From the right side, power in Carlos Lee and Pat Burrell. The problem with most of these names is that they realistically can only be obtained via trades since they are all under contract with their current team (except Dunn and Burrell) hence the Nats would have to give up player(s) to get one of them.

Baseball’s General Managers will not convene formally at the Ritz Carlton in Dana Point, California until Monday, but many GMs will be at the hotel today to meet informally with their peers. Many prefer to talk shop with other GMs and player agents before the meetings get started. The meetings run through Wednesday, and so the Hot Stove of rumors will start heating up. Jim Bowden and Mike Rizzo should get some good face time with Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin and Padres GM Kevin Towers who is expected at the hotel today.

Other news today: Nats pitcher Odalis Perez filed for free agency. Arizona exercised the 2 year option on Jon Rauch today giving the Diamondbacks control through the 2010 season. Adam Dunn made it official today filing for Free Agency as did CC Sabathia.

Posted in Front Office, MLB, Washington Nationals